It’s down to the last eight in the UEFA Champions League and each team knows they are only 5 games away from being crowned kings of Europe. Tonight sees A.C. Milan host Bayern Munich and PSV Eindhoven host Liverpool.
As usual, I’m going to concentrate mostly on the Liverpool tie, but if anyone’s interested they can check out the Milan/Bayern game on Setanta Sports tonight and see my views on this tie on my previous post about the draw. I still agree with the predictions I made there, but ask me again around 10pm tomorrow night.
When it comes to European football few can match Benitez’s Liverpool, although itt has become something of a custom for Liverpool to be written off before big European ties. They were written off against Juventus, Chelsea and Milan in 2005, just as they were written off against Barcelona in the last sixteen this season. Each one of those high profile names fell to the wayside when faced with the 12th man at Anfield. When it comes to being favourites it is a different story though, and last year’s defeat to unfancied Benfica proves that. The manager that day was one Ronald Koeman who stands in Liverpool’s way once again this season on the road to Athens.
Liverpool are the favourites to progress, and rightly so. They were the champion’s in 2005, reached the last 16 last season and have already faced PSV this season drawing 0-0 away and winning 2-0 at home. This does not tell the whole story however. The away leg was another one of those games where Liverpool dominated but could not score and Koeman has already said he’d take a similar result tonight. The game in Anfield came at a time when both teams had already qualified for the next round and were only playing for first and second place in the group. The stakes are much higher this time around.
PSV are not a great side but, like all Koeman teams, they do play as a team. It was this trait combined with a few moments of individual skill that undermined Liverpool last season. I am not convinced however, that PSV have the players with the individual skill that Benfica had last season. Their organization and work-rate was enough to overcome Arsenal in the previous round but I do not think it will be enough to get past Liverpool. PSV will be a tough nut to crack but I believe that Benitez learned from last seasons exit and will not make the same mistake twice.
Many expect Benitez to go with his usual cautious line-up of a 4-4-2 with Gerrard on the right and two holding players in the middle - with Mascherano replacing the suspended Sissoko. Against a team like PSV I’m not sure that’s the best approach and it’s not the line-up I’m expecting when the team sheet is handed to the media at approximately 6:45pm.
I’m expecting;
Reina
Finnan Carragher Agger Aurelio
Pennant Gerrard Alonso Riise
Kuyt Bellamy
with Dudek, Hyypia, Arbeloa, Gonzalez, Crouch, Fowler and Mascherano on the bench.
I believe that Benitez will keep faith in Aurelio and Pennant who have performed well recently and, more importantly, in their ability to stretch the play and create space in the PSV defence. This line-up also gives you Gerrards driving force in the heart of the field and yet has enough defensive protection throughout. Benitez could change to his regular line-up with one substitution - Mascherano for Pennant - so it’s not a big risk defensively either.
This tie will be tight and won’t be decided until the second leg whatever the result tonight. I’m predicting a Liverpool win of 1-0 or 2-1, but I don’t think Liverpool will loose tonight anyway, despite Pepe Reina talking to the media.
*Edit: PSV Vs. Liverpool is live on RTÉ2 tonight. Coverage starts at 19:00, kick-off at 19:45.
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