I really hope I’m wrong…
July 19th, 2007 by DaveAccording to the Guardian this morning the RAF (that’s the Royal Air Force for those not up on their military acronyms!) had to scramble fighter jets on Tuesday to intercept two unidentified aircraft which turned out to be Russian military planes. The Russians turned back before reaching UK airspace and no direct contact occurred however the fact that the RAF felt the need to scramble is in itself worrying.
This comes in the same week that the UK sent four Russian diplomats home as relations between the two nuclear powers worsens. Coincidence? Perhaps, but I think not. We could be witnessing the beginnings of a very serious situation.
Although it is unthinkable and beyond comprehension for those of us living the dream in Celtic tiger Ireland statistically Europe is due a good scrap. Those of us who survive to tell the tale might rue the day we heard the name Alexander Litvinenko.
There are fears in some circles that President Putin is A: Gunning for a fight and B: Looking for any excuse to install himself leader of the Russian Federation beyond the end of his present term in office. We have in the world today a disturbingly blood thirsty bunch in power. It is easy for us to forget that many of our EU neighbours are effectively at war alongside the US while the Russians continue to fight the 2nd of their wars in Chechnya… So is it really that far fetched to suggest that the UK and Russia might square up?
What would the consequences be for us? Given our inablilty to defend ourselves against a well motivated rogue FCA unit and our proximity to the UK I would suggest their might just be a dip in house prices!
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July 19th, 2007 at 10:23 am
While I cannot obviously rule out the suggestion of soured relations between Russia and the UK I think that the likelihood of any escalation of conflict between the two states is pretty unlikely. The UK is very much in the safety of the US as an “ally in the war on terror” and the last thing that the Russians need is another cold war with the US. Their economy is shot and public unease is high. While ‘Big Brother’ may suggest that they need to hate another enemy to keep in line with their patriotism I think that the war with the breakaway states and Chechen rebels is more than occupying their thoughts. Also given the major disruption in the Middle East and the current oil situation, the last thing that Putin needs is a reason for George W to come knocking on the Russian oil-field doors.
July 19th, 2007 at 10:57 am
I hope you’re right Jonathon, although Putins recent warning to America, talk of Europe being a powder keg and certain nations imperialistic tendancies don’t exactly bode well either…
July 19th, 2007 at 11:43 am
I really hope your wrong too.
July 19th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
The Russian economy was shot and public unease was high during the last cold war too. It SHOULDN’T happen in this day and age but the fact that Putin is so near the end of his reign and seems to be spoiling for a fight recently makes anything possible.
July 19th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
You’re wrong about most things Dave, so don’t worry !
July 19th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
How did the Russian jets get into British airspace? They must have gone through Polish or German airspace first. Why didn’t the Luftwaffe get them?
While the Americans have been wasting billions in Iraq, the Russians have been steadily developing new generation cruise missiles and an improved Mig 29, the most capable warplane in the world.
A friend of mine is recently back from Moscow where he lived for the last two years. Word on the street is practically everyone in Russia loves Putin, views him as a sort of national saviour. My friend was with some friends in a restaurant one evening and his friends started bad mouthing Putin. A big chap from the table across the way came over him and threatened him, telling him to stop insulting Putin and Russia. There is a small opposition movement in Russia but most people don’t see what they could possibly be opposed to-life in Russia under Putin is good to the majority of Russians and they want it to continue so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin changed the legislation to allow stay on for another term of office.
July 19th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
The Russians have responded tonight by giving four UK diplomats ten days to get out of Moscow… however Putin has made some efforts at lowering the temperature saying that relations with the UK would normalise in the coming weeks.
The worrying thing is that US Secretary of State (minister of foreign affairs to you and me!) Condoleezza Rice has made some incendiary comments basically telling Russia to tow the line and do what they are told by America’s little friend… Way to go Condi! Obviously Ivy League universities don’t offer courses in diplomacy 101- Avoid waving red rag at bull!
Please God fast forward to the swearing in of President Barack Obama and VP Clinton.
July 19th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
Martin,
The Russians never entered UK air… Obviously I don’t know which exact route they took and why the RAF decided they might cause a threat. However if you look at a map you’ll see there are a lot more ways to fly from Russia to the UK that over mainland Europe.
All this is taking place as you correctly point out while the yanks are up to their eye balls in it in Iraq. They have however recently ticked off Vlad Putin with their plans to put a missile defence system in former Soviet bloc countries in Eastern Europe.
The way the traditional big 3, UK-US and Russia are gesturing and throwing shapes is chillingly reminiscent of times gone by.
July 19th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Cheer up Dave, it might never happen.
July 20th, 2007 at 2:21 am
Where’s the fun or the writing material in that!
July 21st, 2007 at 6:52 pm
A unified E.U. allied with Russia and the Arab world, that’s the future for us, I bet 20 squid. America will self combust or a coup will take out the bloodthirsty neo cons and restore a real republican party to pick up the pieces. Then the U.S can come apologise and will be re-accepted to the westertn fold. Israel will tow the line or be dismantled. And Ireland will set up an organisation to protect it’s rural pubs and arrest 95% of it’s leading developers for corruption.
July 21st, 2007 at 8:12 pm
I’ll take that bet Ed… I’ll give you 5/1 on it in fact!
It would be nice to see the back of the neo-con’s but I can’t see it happening unless the dem’s win the general, house and senate for the next 8 years. Then you might see the return of liberal conservetism to the US.
All the rural pubs need to do is throw a few quid at Fianna Fail and all their problems will go away… with the developers in jail (where the bastards belong) they’ll have less competition for seats in the tent at the Galway races.
July 21st, 2007 at 8:55 pm
Ireland should definitely start an arms race with Denmark. Two countries roughly the same size-should be a good old spat. Come on Ireland! Down with the dirty Danes! We should nuke Copenhagen and take out production of Carlsberg.
July 21st, 2007 at 8:59 pm
They’ve actually got a fairly good head start on us so I wouldn’t go picking on them anytime soon… they have after all successfully invaded us once already!
July 21st, 2007 at 9:03 pm
How about Luxembourg then, we’d have a good chance against the Luxembourgers. They’ve never been much of a fighting force, should be easy.
July 21st, 2007 at 9:06 pm
Minor issue of them being defended by Belgium, France and Netherlands… one on one in a neutral venue we might stand a chance but othe than that we’d be in trouble.
And before you say Switzerland… they’re armed to the teeth.
Remind me to write a post on how we use our traditionally neutral stance as a way of spending no money on defence despite being bound to do so by treaties which we signed up to…. Geneva and Hague
July 21st, 2007 at 9:09 pm
I can’t wait for that Dave. Please don’t forget to tell us how we use our traditionally neutral stance as a way of spending no money on defence despite being bound to do so by treaties which we signed up to…. Geneva and Hague.
July 21st, 2007 at 9:09 pm
Thanks Martin!
July 22nd, 2007 at 3:51 am
Right so…
We are neutral? It may come to you as a matter of some surprise to know that we are not.
Firstly, there exists in our constitution the mechanism to declare war (I’m too drunk to go upstairs and retrieve one of my copies of the constitution to enlighten you on the article number etc. but I assure you it’s in there) If memory serves correct all one has to do is get agreement of the cabinet and then get a majority in the Dail… The President probably has to sign something too as head of state and head of the defence forces (a member of which I am proud to say I once was)
Secondly, under the Hague Convention of 1907 the international laws for declaring war and declaring neutrality are outlined. Ireland is a signatory of the Hague Convention (Not sure when we signed up as we were not a sovereign state at the time but I know we are before you hammer me on that front, probably by signing other treaties as a state we became signatories by proxy.)
Under this treaty a country cannot declare itself neutral unless there is a conflict which may involve it. Therefore to say “We are neutral� is a totally bogus statement there is normally nothing to be neutral about.
However and here is the point of this drunken rant, under this treaty to which we have agreed to abide, a country declaring itself neutral must have the where with all to defend itself in the event of being attacked. To put it mildly we do not have that capacity. Not for so much as a few hours depending on who attacks and here is the good bit, if you have declared yourself neutral you cannot ask for help from friendly nations. So basically we’d be screwed.
I know, I know we are highly unlikely to be attacked in any circumstances. But given that we would intend to declare ourselves neutral we are not living up to our end of the bargain. Taking other traditionally nations as examples such as the Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden we are a disgrace.
Don’t for a moment think that I am suggesting we go get ourselves all armed up to the teeth. That’s not what I’m saying at all. But we should at least be able to throw a shape as some form of deterrence!
If for nothing else it would give us the ability to shore up our coastline against the type of drug running which hit the headlines lately. It would mean that our fishermen could be rescued by our aircraft rather than the unholy embarrassment of having to ask the Royal Navy or Air force to come do our nations job (that of looking after its citizens) for us.
It would also mean that in times of flood or other natural disaster we could cope and avoid loss of life etc. In times of danger/treat to life or otherwise a nations well trained military is the citizens best protector. And we don’t have one. We use the excuse of “We’re neutral� to not spend money on our defence forces. It is at our peril.
There endith tonight’s lesson in constitutional and international law.
July 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 am
Fair play Dave. However, I don’t mind if we dont have a decent defence force, I’ve got my SAS survival handbook (which came in very handy in a failed raft trip to bermuda) for when the invading hordes arrive… or are they already amongst us?
July 22nd, 2007 at 4:16 pm
I say put all the money we waste on welfare into arms. We should take Israel as an example of a small nation capable of defending itself. No joke, when Europe is all dried out and Ireland the only place with a decent drop of water left they’ll all be coming here for our water. More bombs, less dole! Save Irish rain from European envy. Four years re-arming and then we use the North as a springboard into Britain. Less language therapists for non-English speaking refugees and more missile technology for the Irish.
July 22nd, 2007 at 9:53 pm
You really are one of the minds of our generation Martin. It’s amazing that you don’t have a column in one of the big Sunday nationals or even a top consulting job at the Dept of an Taoiseach.
July 23rd, 2007 at 11:53 am
Thank you Dave, a bit of recognition is always welcome to a great thinker like myself. Remarkably no main political party has shown interest in my political thoughts as of yet. However, I have had offers from the ICP and will be thinking over my position in the next few days. Remember, less Roma on the roundabout and more military spending will make Ireland a safer place and keep Irish water Irish. Unemployment will also be solved when the unemployed are drafted into our armed forces. In trench warfare situations the unemployed can be sent over the top first to be gunned down-more long term savings for the exchequer. That’s something you’ll surely support Dave, eh?
July 23rd, 2007 at 12:16 pm
I can see you taking the ICP to new political heights… A few slightly larger than life statues of your good self strategically about the place (on the round abouts when you chuck the Roma in the tide) and we’d be sorted.
It people like yourself that make this country what it is!
July 24th, 2007 at 12:07 am
Yes Dave, we can be heroes.
July 24th, 2007 at 12:36 am
Brilliant. I was away from the computer for a few days and missed this gem of a conversation. Pure genius all round lads. Fair play.
July 24th, 2007 at 12:40 am
I’m glad you enjoyed it Frank! Fancy kicking it off again?
July 24th, 2007 at 1:05 am
Ned,
That’s fantastic that you’ll be ok… for the first ten minutes till you get tired or dirty and your mobile phone won’t work so you can’t ring your mommy to come collect you and you can’t google the answer to how to make dirty water clean enough to wash my hands after I go pee-pee…
So to be clear, you don’t want any help from the defence forces if you happen to end up in the sh1t?
glad we sorted that one
July 24th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
No need for slagging me dave. I’ll put it down to the fact that maybe you are a bit excited about setting up your army. This time.
I was merely establishing my seperatist sensabilities. Besides I would rather a blind, homosexual anteater to protect me than an Army consisting of you and Martin.
July 28th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
I don’t think Martin would join any army lead by me and I know I’d have reservations (to put it mildly) with Martin’s military credentials… So on that front you’ll have to content yourself with the afore mentioned anteater.
As for your separatist sensibilities they are neither sensible nor separatist to be fair… they’re silly and childish with a hint of “lets try write something inflammatory and stir things up.”
If you think that’s slagging you better be glad we didn’t go to school together or you’d be in serious therapy : )
July 28th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Incidentally and this is important (to me anyway) I was never in the army… bunch of fools running around fields sleeping on mountains in the middle of winter eating out of tins… losers!