Last season I spoke at this stage about standing up and being counted. Well this season is just the same.

Instead of having to over-turn the 1-0 lead Chelsea had, Liverpool now have to over come the own goal equaliser. I was very confident before this tie that Liverpool would make their 3rd final in 4 years. I predicted a 2-0 first leg victory, but even though Liverpool scored twice the score is tied at 1-1. The away goal gives Chelsea the advantage and leaves Liverpool in a score or you’re out, situation. As anyone who has glanced at a sports section of a newspaper since last Tuesday will know, Liverpool haven’t scored in Stamford Bridge in their last 8 attempts.

What the media have failed to mention is that Riise’s own goal was the first away goal scored between these two teams in the last 7 games, Torres has never played in Stamford Bridge (and therefore Liverpool’s top scorer has not failed to score there), and perhaps most importantly, this Liverpool side have scored in all of their away games in this season’s Champions League.

That’s right, the team that needs one goal to go through tonight have gone to Toulouse, Porto, Besiktas, Marseille (where they scored 4), undefeated Inter Millan, and Arsenal and scored at least one goal in each game.

Of course none of this makes the test that lies ahead for Liverpool any easier. It just makes it a little more realistic to believe they can do it.

Chelsea have a great record at home and usually score too, so the sensible prediction is for another 1-1 and the tie to go to penalties again. I would take that as I believe Liverpool would win on penalties but my gut feeling is that this tie will be settled in the 90 minutes.

Liverpool must go out and aim to score 2 goals, so I would switch formation to a 4-4-2. I expect Benitez to do this as one thing he must have learned in the 1st leg is that Torres must not be left up front on his own against Chelsea’s dirty defenders. So with Crouch coming in, who goes out?

For me it has to be Babel. He wasn’t very influential in the 1st leg and his pace off the bench in the 2nd leg against Arsenal made the difference between the two teams. I’ve been thinking about this all week. Crouch must come in yet we must keep our midfield solidity. Babel’s exit would help with this as we could keep the central pairing of Alonso and Mascherano. This leaves Gerrard on the left wing though I hear you say. Yes it does. I know he had a quieter game on the left against Arsenal but I do not go along with the belief that it was an awful performance.

Gerrard took some time to settle into his left-wing role but in the second half he pulled more of Arsenal’s defenders out to him and therefore opened up the room for Torres and Crouch in the center. This cotribution was crucial to Benitez’s game plan and so the performance was not an awful one. Tonight he is up against Ferreira, who is no Kolo Toure, so his job would be a lot easier and he could have more of an impact on the game.

Kuyt must be kept on the right-wing as his performances in the last few European games have been outstanding. His work-rate and goal scoring contributions have helped Liverpool get this far and so he deserves to play. Liverpool would miss his work against Joe Cole too.

The back-line gives Benitez another important decision to make. Carragher and Skertel will play and should be the central pairing. Aurelio is injured so there will be a change at left-back. It seems like a no brainer to me, but Benitez doesn’t trust Riise 100%. It makes it an even harder decision for him considering Riise’s blunder in the first leg, but that makes me even more sure that he should be in the team. Riise is a strong character and will be up for the game tonight. I’d go with Arbeloa at right-back as Finnan hasn’t looked himself for a while now.

These decisions are what will decide this tie. Grant will probably go with the same team as the first leg with Kalou maybe coming in for Malouda, but has a major stick or twist call to make. This is where Liverpool have the edge. Grant, while not as tactically inept as some would like us to believe is a little ponderous, so it is important that Benitez is decisive if he is to win this game.

Predicted Liverpool line-up;

Liverpool to go through 1-0 and beat Man Utd in the final!