It’s advantage Liverpool (except on set-pieces).

After two 1-1 draws away from home Liverpool entertain Arsenal in the latest game to decide their season. There seem to be a lot of season defining games at the moment. Of course all it means is that if you loose your season’s over. The win on the other hand does not make your season a success.

Dirk Kuyt’s equaliser and Benitez’s tactical changes for Saturday’s league game mean that it is very much advantage Liverpool. Anyone who doubts this need only read the comments of Cesc Fabregas to see;

“We want to play, we want to attack - just because the other team refuses to play, we have to do the right thing. We want to play football. Even if you lose, at least you have tried to play how you wanted to…I could feel his [Mascherano's] breath on my neck all the first half…”

With the away goal it is advantage Liverpool and with the psychological battle it is advantage Liverpool. And this is before the Arsenal players come up against the Anfield atmosphere. Since Mourinho’s disciplined men of strong character crumbled under the roar of the Kop (twice) it is safe to assume that Wenger’s skillfull men of suspect character will be effected by it.

I wondered in last week’s post about how much impact the league game would have on the Champion’s League tie and the answer is a massive one. By making the carefully selected changes Benitez made to his line-up for Saturday he gave the Arsenal team a lot to think about. After having to bust a gut to keep up with the pace of Torres last Wednesday the Arsenal defence struggled with the height of Crouch on Saturday. The prospect of facing both of these or of one following the other onto the pitch late in the game will have given them plenty of food for thought.

Where the psychological advantage really comes from though is that the Liverpool defence was strong and stubborn in both games. The Arsenal players will be wondering if they have what it takes to break this defence down from open play and Fabregas’s comments confirm this. It is interesting to note that after both the Champion’s League and the Premiership games Fabregas looked the most tired man on the pitch.

Liverpool are fitter, more experienced and more disciplined than Arsenal, but these qualities alone will not win the game. Arsenal have scored two set-pieces in two games so Liverpool need to be on their toes with their zonal marking. I believe we will see Liverpool throwing themselves across the pitch in an effort to stop corners tonight and should be able to cope with the few set-pieces that come their way. I still feel Arsenal will score though and after having two penalty claims turned down in two games I’m expecting them to be given a penalty tonight. Who knows, maybe Reina will save it?

I expect Gerrard to score a free-kick for Liverpool and Arsenal to equalise from the spot. 1-1 is the logical outcome as these two teams have already played out three 1-1 draws this season. On penalties Liverpool will win. In extra-time Arsenal would be the more likely to score but I doubt they’ll have enough left in the tank.

The only way I can see a winner in 90 minutes is if Benitez can work out a way to get both Torres and Crouch on the pitch at some point in the game without sacrificing the solidity of his midfield and defence. Then I believe Torres would score the winner.

Preditced Liverpool team;

In other news, the Liverpool Reserves last night won the Barclays Premier Reserve League North. They will play the winners of the South league on May 7th to decide the overall winner. Having won the Youth FA Cup in 2006 and 2007 there is a lot to look forward to for Liverpool fans.